Chapter 209: Chapter 96, Pretext for War

Translator: 549690339

With Franz’s order, Bavaria became bustling.

Prime Minister Felix’s speech in Munich did have an effect, and most of the younger generation in Bavaria were ensnared, each considering how the Germany Region could be unified.

This thought alone created problems. With their limited social experience, they simply could not consider the issues comprehensively, and it was very easy for them to become extreme in their views.

If no one had provoked further, it would have been one thing, but how could the prepared Franz possibly miss this opportunity?

One by one, experts and scholars emerged to express their opinions, criticizing the rulers of the Bavarian Government for acting in their own interests and undermining the unification of the Germany Region.

To most people, rebuilding the Shinra was not the best choice, but it was the most suitable one. When the path of peaceful unification was blocked, the only option left was unification by force.

Perhaps some craved to achieve great things in war, but this was definitely not to be a civil war.

Influenced by Prime Minister Felix’s speech, these self-proclaimed elite students couldn’t restrain themselves anymore. They believed they should do something for the unification of the nation and could not just watch the government mess things up.

Demonstrations, this meaningful activity, became their best method of voicing their opinions.

As intellectuals, even when marching, they could find legal grounds for it. The speech given by the former King Ludwig before his abdication became their banner.

(Affected by the revolution, Ludwig abdicated. To win back public support, he publicly stated: “The royal family will commit to the unification of the Germany Region.”)

Maximilian II was troubled, as the political bomb had detonated. Even though there were no unchangeable family laws in Europe, the remarks made by the former king before his abdication held political sway as well.

Now the public wanted the King to give an explanation. Since the royal family was committed to the unification of the Germany Region, how would they explain the government’s current contradictory actions?

Not only the King was questioned but also the Cabinet Ministers were subjected to the people’s scrutiny. The public’s stance was clear: they could accept opposition to the establishment of the Shinra, but shouldn’t there be a plan for the unification of Germany?

No matter if it was feasible, there had to be at least a theoretical plan that could convince most people and gain their approval.

An anxious Maximilian II asked, “What do we do now, gentlemen? The citizens are awaiting our reply.”

It wasn’t that they were unprepared, but the previous contingency plans were meant to deal with troublemakers. The problem now was that these people weren’t making trouble at all.

The crowd involved in this demonstration was of much higher quality than usual; no longer only workers and students, but also the middle class, capitalists, social scholars, and the nobility participated.

The wide coverage involved all groups of the Kingdom of Bavaria. Even if the Bavarian Government suspected it was organized, they had no evidence and dared not act rashly.

The revolution had just passed, and everyone was nervous, fearing to cause any social unrest.

Prime Minister August replied, “Your Majesty, the best solution right now is to present a unification plan for Germany and try to convince the public as much as possible.”

In reality, each principality’s government in the Germany Region was preparing their own unification plans. If one were to oppose the re-establishment of the Shinra, then a new alternative was necessary.

Otherwise, it would be as Felix criticized, “doing nothing practical all day and opposing for the sake of opposing.”

“Prime Minister, any suggestions?” Maximilian II inquired.

August replied, “Your Majesty, we can change our previous plans slightly and revamp the Three Countries Cabinet plan.

The reason remains the same: there are too many principalities in the Germany Region, and if everyone is involved in the decision-making, all that would be left is quarreling daily.

The best choice is for Bavaria to replace the many small principalities, balance against Austria and Prussia in the central government, and co-dominate the Empire.

Of course, this proposal is unlikely to gain support from the other states, but it is viable to convince our citizens, and Bavaria can reap the greatest benefit.

As long as the Austrians can accept the formation of a Three Countries Cabinet, we will support the re-establishment of the Holy Roman Empire.”

After hesitating for a moment, Maximilian II made up his mind and said, “Alright, let’s do that.”

Doing this would offend the smaller states, but when faced with a lesser of two evils, one must choose the lesser. Offending the small states might lead to some protests, but failing to provide the domestic public with an explanation could impact the basis of the rule.

Ever since receiving the support of the major powers, the Bavarian Government’s courage had grown a lot. If it weren’t for the fact that Prussia-Austria was a bit too strong, they would have even liked to unify the many small German principalities by force.

Moreover, this time, the Bavarian Government had taken the lead for everyone and thwarted Austria’s Shinra plan. Even if their current slogan was a bit overboard, surely everyone would understand.

On March 4, 1853, the United Kingdom and France ignited the Crimean War, immediately disrupting the Russian’s arrangement with their first strike.

The British strategy was not wrong; the Tsarist Government truly was struggling. After adding a new front, the logistics and supply of the Russian Army on the Balkan Peninsula all fell on Austria.

To the surprise of the Allied Forces, the Russian units committed to the Crimean War not only had poor combat effectiveness, but even their weapons and equipment were surprisingly bad, amounting to a beggar army.

There was no other choice, the Tsarist Government was helpless. Russia’s elite units were mostly consumed on the Balkans battlefield, or had gone to the Caucasus war field; what remained were second-line or reserve forces.

Inadequately trained and with poor weapons and equipment, when combat erupted, the Russians naturally suffered greatly. If not for the terrain and climate of the Crimean War tormenting the unaccustomed Allied Forces, the victor between both sides would have already been decided.

Vienna

Finance Minister Karl spoke gravely, “Your Majesty, the Russians have applied for another loan from us. Tsarist government bonds are facing a cold reception in the market, and most investors are worried about their defaulting.”

Franz couldn’t even be bothered to criticize the Russians anymore. With such poor creditworthiness, no wonder investors, even with collateral on offer, worried about them defaulting.

It wasn’t an unfounded worry; the Russians had a history of default. It was one thing to default on ordinary debts, but they were equally capable of making excuses for defaulting on secured debts.

For example, if they mortgaged a mine, they could impose all sorts of messy taxes specifically targeting that mine, forcing the investors to withdraw on their own.

Another example would be mortgaging tax revenues; the result is letting the creditors go collect it themselves, provided they can actually collect it.

The sins committed by the ancestors now fall on Nicholas I to repay. There are too many harsh lessons, leaving the capital market still scarred by them.

Even as Nicholas I is striving to restore credibility, it is still of no avail. Without the efforts of several generations, their credit will be hard for the market to accept.

Just look at how the European countries are issuing paper money, while they still directly use gold and silver as currency; it’s not just a lack of credibility in the international market, but the domestic capital market also doubts the credibility of the Tsarist Government.

Franz did not hesitate to say, “Tell the Russians that our finances are also very difficult, and we cannot provide them with a huge loan. We suggest they try the capital market of a neutral country.”

He is scared. The Russians have already borrowed 202 million shields from Austria, including 130 million in government loans and 72 million in private loans, and Franz’s Royal Bank has issued a loan of 5 million shields.

Of course, government loans come with ultra-low interest rates. Private loans naturally follow market laws, and with a business partner like the Tsarist Government, which has a poor reputation, they do not consider anything less than 0.7% per month.

After deducting all kinds of messy fees, the interest that the Russians need to pay has actually exceeded 1% per month.

Don’t think this is usury; even with such interest rates, there are very few consortia willing to lend money to the Russians.

High risk corresponds with high returns; if it wasn’t for the stipulation that this money can only be used within Austria, these loans simply would not be approved.

Some private loans have additional conditions attached, such as specifying the purchase of products from certain companies, or for example …

Naturally, the Tsarist Government is keen to seek loans from the Austrian Government. Not to mention the high interest rates of private loans, there are also a plethora of restrictive conditions that the Tsarist Government obviously cannot endure.

Even if there are Russians to back it up, Franz dares not to print money recklessly; who knows when the Near East conflict will end? What if it ends prematurely?

At that time, if Austria has not accumulated enough capital and an economic crisis erupts again, the Russians who obtain the loans could potentially become bottom-fishers.

In the face of interest, one must still guard against what needs to be guarded. Basically, the Russians must bring a certain amount of gold and silver into Austria before Franz dares to lend out money, ensuring there will not be currency devaluation.

Franz admits that he is a conservative and utterly ignorant about economic issues. However, a state is different from a company; a state needs stable development, not rapid eruption.

Metternich spoke, “Your Majesty, at this time, we need to stabilize the Russians. We can first help them sell some bonds for emergency use. The summer taxes are about to arrive, and the Russians should be able to recover a bit by then.

The Bavarian Government has led itself to a dead end; it just needs time to ferment. Our people only need to give them a push, and they’re finished.”

It’s not easy to trap the Bavarian Government. Austria had set up many huge pits for them to fall into, but they have managed to avoid most of them.

For instance: When the Bavarian Government suppresses the crowds demonstrating, Austria can intervene using the accusation that the Bavarian Government is persecuting nationalist activists, attempting to split the German region.

No need to declare war, and the Austrian army could just appear on the streets of Munich, even being welcomed in.

Clearly, the Bavarian Government was not foolish, even if they were unaware of Austria’s intention to act against them, they also knew that a violent suppression would undermine their foundation of rule.

As a result, they avoided that trap, but then they dug a new one for themselves. On the surface, offending these small principalities might not seem like much, since all they do is shout slogans at home.

But with Austria fanning the flames, it was different; the governments of these principalities might keep their cool, but the public could not.

According to Austria’s plan, they were, after all, one of the shareholders of Shinra, the masters of the nation; but according to Bavaria’s plan, they became mere shareholders, nominally so, without the right to participate in decisions, their share of the profit even stripped away.

Under such circumstances, it would be strange if they were not angry. Once they became agitated, when Austria moved against Bavaria, they would oppose the government sending troops, and the public’s opposition would inevitably make these small state governments hesitate.

If they did not send troops to help at the very beginning, the Kingdom of Bavaria would not withstand the first wave. Ensuingly, Austria’s annexation of Bavaria as a fait accompli, it would be too late for others to intervene.

Without the Kingdom of Bavaria, these small states had to confront Austria directly; their limited strength meant they no longer had the power to resist Austria, and with public spirit and morale scattered, subsequent problems became easier to manage.

The small states of Germany might seem inconsequential, but if united, their strength was not insignificant.

They could muster an army of three to four hundred thousand, and with the Kingdom of Prussia added, if Austria could not quickly defeat them one by one, becoming mired in a stalemate would mean the failure of the plan.

Therefore, political subterfuge was of paramount importance. Not to mention deceiving other national governments, as long as there was hesitation, allowing Austria to take down Bavaria, the overall situation would be settled.

On the surface, the Austrian Government now appeared to be dominated by the Peaceful unification faction, with the opposition to the German unification faction closely following; as for the voices advocating for the military unification of the German region, one would hardly hear them unless going down to the grassroots level.

From a political standpoint, no matter how one looked at it, the Austrian Government had neither the motivation nor the conditions to take military action.

To a certain degree, politicians’ political stances would influence national decisions, just as the election of Lincoln, an advocate for the abolition of slavery, led to the detonation of the American Civil War.

If the Austrian Government had the War Party in power, every principality in the German region would be extremely vigilant, just as everyone now is towards the Kingdom of Prussia.

Even though their power was still inferior to Austria, their Prime Minister was from the military, a standard hardliner, giving everyone a sense of threat.

Franz, agreeable as ever, said, “Well then, let’s hold off the Russians this round. They’ll probably be collecting war taxes again soon, and I suppose the Tsarist Government won’t be short of money this year.”

War tax is a unique type of tax in Europe; before modern times, the funds monarchs raised for wars usually came from war taxes.

Austria also had a war tax in place, but Franz wouldn’t collect it unless absolutely necessary. Money collected could not be followed by losing battles, or the consequences would be very serious.

Marshal Radetzky reminded, “Your Majesty, it’s time to create a pretext for war. The dissolution of the German Confederation has progressed enough; any more would be overdoing it.”

Franz thought for a moment and said, “Proceed according to plan.”