Chapter 396: Chapter 83: The Grand Conspiracy
The internal strife of the Kingdom of Prussia concerned no one, as most European nations celebrated the news, reflecting just how unpopular Russia was.
Austria was no exception, and if it weren’t for appearances, Franz was ready to hold a banquet to celebrate this great victory.
To date in the Prusso-Russian War, the Tsarist Government had lost over five hundred thousand troops; it was unclear exactly how many had died, been captured, or been discharged due to injuries.
The Tsarist Government hadn’t sorted out these problems, so certainly Franz was not going to bother tallying them for the Russians.
As Victors, the Prusso-Polish Coalition Forces were also in a difficult position. As for the Kingdom of Prussia, that was another matter; though they had suffered heavy losses, they still had residual strength and could recover with the respite of one winter and should be able to replenish by next year.
Of course, this replenishment was only in terms of military strength; the war potential inevitably declined, even with manpower supplements from the Two Principalities.
The Polish were different, though. Even with the support from various European countries, they still couldn’t change their inherent nature as a disorganized mob.
To garner more support, the Provisional Government announced: the abolition of serfdom and the free distribution of land to the people.
However, saying it was one thing, and implementing it was another. The Provisional Government was disorganized, and the Revolutionaries lacked any governing experience, resulting in mechanical implementation and farce in practice.
First, they antagonized the Nobility, then the ensuing internal struggles sparked dissatisfaction among the middle class.
Without seeing tangible benefits and with nothing but slogans over time, even these ploys were eventually seen through. As time passed, the general populace gradually lost their fervor for the revolution.
If it hadn’t been for the victory in the Battle of East Prussia, it would have been questionable whether the Polish Provisional Government could have survived the winter.
The good or bad of a policy does not lie in the policy itself, but in its implementation. Clearly, the Polish Provisional Government didn’t realize this and naively believed that once a government decree was issued, it would be carried out.
While the policy of free land distribution was correct in theory, the bureaucratically implemented specifics allowed for considerable discretion. To describe these officials as opportunists rather than bureaucrats would be more accurate.
Filled with idealism and disregarding reality, the Provisional Government blindly introduced a series of what they thought were good policies, which naturally led to predictable chaos within the country.
This was advantageous for Austria, as the chaos in Poland caused the Polish population within Austria to hesitate, which further facilitated the progress of national integration.
Strategically, Austria successfully used the Prusso-Polish Coalition Forces to weaken Russia without allowing Prussia or Poland to rise opportunistically, achieving the first stage of their strategic plan.
Whether to continue weakening the Russian Empire became Franz’s most pressing concern.
On the one hand, he wanted to weaken this potential rival, while on the other hand, he wished for Russia to retain enough strength to checkmate the British in Central Asia.
While the Prusso-Russian War was underway, the Tsarist Government hadn’t neglected their campaign against the Central Asian Khanates. However, due to financial incapability to support a two-front war, Russian military operations in Central Asia were lackluster.
Within the Vienna Government, there was an ongoing dispute; it wasn’t that the Russian Empire lacked power, their biggest issue was their inability to fully utilize their strength.
Theoretically, if the Tsarist Government could utilize just half of its war potential, they could easily deal with the Kingdom of Prussia.
The support Austria provided to them during the Prusso-Russian War was far from the scale during the Near Eastern War, which was one of the factors preventing Russia from harnessing its strength.
It was a matter of interest. In the Near Eastern War, Austria stood to gain a great deal; even if the loans they gave were irrecoverable, they compensated for these losses in other areas.
The Prusso-Russian War was different—Austria would struggle to gain any substantial benefits. The partition of the Kingdom of Prussia was talk only; actually doing so would be a loss-making endeavor.
Franz sought the human resources of North Germany, which required winning the hearts of the local populace; should he really join forces with the Russians to partake in the partition, he could forget earning the local population’s approval.
Nationalism is a double-edged sword; Franz utilized it to establish the New Holy Roman Empire and secured the rich manpower resources of the Germany Region, naturally taking on the ensuing complications as well.
Finance Minister Karl suggested, “Your Majesty, the Prusso-Russian War has achieved our aims, and we might consider mediating to end this conflict.
The finances of the Tsarist Government have collapsed. So far into the war, they have accrued a debt of 30 million Divine Shield to us for goods and an outstanding loan of 65 million Divine Shield, along with 18 million Divine Shield in private bonds.
If the war continues, I do not believe the Russians will be able to repay their debts. With their prior obligations, there might come a day where the Russians can’t even afford the interest payments.
Even if the Russians win the war, our gains from the partition of the Kingdom of Prussia would be very limited.”
This was the reality. Currently, Russia’s total debt to Austria amounted to 237 million Divine Shield, with monthly capital and interest payments totaling 2.154 million Divine Shield.
It might not seem much, considering the Tsarist Government’s fiscal revenues should afford it. But Russia’s debts were not limited to Austria; they owed money to other European countries as well.
Currently, Russia’s debt repayment accounted for one-third of its fiscal income, and if the Prusso-Russian War dragged on, the Tsarist Government’s financial bankruptcy was inevitable.
The Finance Department was prepared for a Russian default, and Franz was equally mentally prepared.
Although the money was also war finance issued by Austria, since it had entered his own pocket, it could not be allowed to go to waste, it had to be spent valuably.
There was no doubt that this value would not be the partitioning of Prussia, but had to be compensated in other ways.
In Franz’s view, Austria had already recouped its investment. At the same time, it had weakened both Prussia and Russia, incurring animosity between them, which greatly reduced Austria’s defense pressure in Eastern and Central Europe.
However, based on the principle of maximizing benefits, he certainly sought ways to gain more advantages. How to operate would test Franz’s diplomatic skills in Vienna.
Foreign Minister Weisenberg objected, “It’s too early to stop fighting now, and besides, both sides might not accept our goodwill.
With the financial support from England and France, the Kingdom of Prussia still has the strength for a fight. The Berlin government, led by the Junker aristocracy, will definitely not cease hostilities; they still want to tear a piece off Russia to establish their great nation’s foundation.
Russia still has substantial strength left, and the Tsarist Government will not admit defeat so easily. They had only just established European dominance after the anti-Napoleonic wars; no one would give up so quickly on what they had achieved.
Both sides have the foundation to keep fighting, and us mediating now will please neither.
With the buffer of a winter’s time, the Tsarist Government will probably manage to gather enough funds.
If they can’t raise sufficient funds, then it will depend on what conditions the Tsarist Government can offer. We can fully adopt a wait-and-see approach.
The greatest benefit to the Prussians from the victory in the Battle of East Prussia is still political, which makes it possible to bring Sweden into the war.
The ancient enmity between Russia and Sweden has a long history. Over the past three hundred years, they have fought eight major wars, only stopping in the past few decades when Sweden declined.
Besides that, the Ottoman Empire might also take the opportunity to recapture the Caucasus region. They have just completed a social reform, and although the reform was not thorough, they still recovered some strength.
The Central Asian Khanates which have just been bullied by the Russians, as well as Persia which has recently turned against the Russians, and the Qing Empire in the Far Eastern region, could all potentially become enemies of Russia.
According to the intelligence we have, the British diplomats have been very active recently, and our preliminary judgment is that they are orchestrating a coalition.
One can imagine that next year will be tough for the Tsarist Government. If they win the war against Prussia, these countries might quiet down; but if they continue to fail, then they will be in danger.”
Looking at the map of Eurasia, Franz had to admit that Russia had a real knack for making enemies. If John Bull’s plan succeeded, then the surrounded Russian Empire might indeed struggle to hold on.
“The Russian-Austrian Alliance” is based on the premise that both nations are equally strong. If the Russian Empire falls, Austria might be the first to kick them while they’re down.
Franz inquired with concern, “The British plan, has the Tsarist Government noticed it?”
Deep down, he had taken Russia as a negative example and constantly reminded himself not to be reckless.
Foreign Minister Weisenberg replied, “We aren’t sure yet. The Russians haven’t taken any action, so we cannot tell if they have seen through the British plot.”
The ability of Austria’s Foreign Ministry to discover the British plan was due to no reason other than considering the British as their foremost rival.
As rivals, they naturally had to pay close attention to every move of the British, hence the institutions of Austria’s Foreign Ministry all over the world were tacitly keeping an eye on them.
Prime Minister Felix suggested, “If the British indeed have such a grand plan, then it’s necessary for us to warn the Russians.
The Russian Empire cannot fall; if it truly collapses, then its disintegration becomes inevitable. Currently, we are not in a position to dismantle the Russian Empire, so we’d better not let it fall.”
The disintegration of the Russian Empire isn’t the issue; the key is that we cannot fragment it completely. Merely tearing off a few chunks on the fringes is no longer Austria’s aspiration.
Especially at the critical moment of the Africa Strategy, with the Russian Empire in trouble, Austria would be stuck in this quagmire, unable to extricate itself in the short term.
Franz thought for a moment and said, “Then let’s find an opportunity to inform the Russians. But not now, let’s wait until the British plan has progressed enough to act.
With so many countries involved, getting them to act against Russia simultaneously is definitely not an easy task, and the British might be wishful thinking.”
Hatred is something all share, as well as the demands for benefits. These factors constitute the prerequisites for their revenge against Russia, but regrettably, the governments of these countries are not that powerful.
Due to inconvenient communication, so many countries cannot communicate sufficiently, being spread far and wide. The so-called joint action is a mere wishful thinking and can easily be defeated by the Russians one by one.
Moreover, many of these countries’ governments are decayed and simply lack the courage to regain their lost territory; they would only make a decisive move if the British took the field personally.
Therefore, Franz was naturally not in a hurry. He would wait until the British were almost ready before notifying the Russians; it would also add a bit of difficulty to Alexander II’s game.
If the Tsarist Government resolves the issue through diplomatic means, wouldn’t that be quite embarrassing for the British?